Civil Unrest Helps Biden
June 23, 2020
The protests, rioting, and looting of the last few weeks has been a boon for Joe Biden on most prediction and betting markets. Before the unrest, Trump held a roughly 8 point advantage over Biden. Biden now holds a massive 16 point lead over Trump, representing a nearly 25 point swing in the betting market averages. This data runs counter to what many conservative pundits have asserted, that Trump would be the beneficiary of the lawlessness and destruction.
There are, however, some silver linings for the GOP in the data. Most of the wagering on the election takes the form of overall-winner contracts. When you drill down into the state-by-state polling, Biden's lead in the polls narrows substantially -- and is weak in the places he needs it most. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania he holds a five point advantage, and in Michigan it's eight points. These leads are even smaller than the polling suggested for Hillary Clinton, and Trump upset for the win in all three states. The national election will probably hinge on those three states once again, assuming Trump can hold Florida and Ohio. Those wagering on overall-winner contracts may be underestimating Trumps position in the Electoral College.
Republicans also point to record-breaking gun sales figures coming out all across the country as proof that the "silent majority" is less than thrilled about the ongoing unrest that has now left over twenty people dead and hundreds of businesses burned to the ground. Crime is also surging in major cities across America, with Chicago seeing one of its all-time worst weekends with over 100 people shot
over the Father's Day weekend. Historically, these indicators point to strength in turnout for the GOP, but the election is still a long way off. Four and a half months is an eternity in an election cycle, just look how far the pendulum swung in one.
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