Sanders Out, Betting Odds Unchanged
April 16, 2020
A great deal has happened in the last two weeks. Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign, much to the surprise of his supporters, making Joe Biden the presumptive nominee for the Democrats. The Democratic National Convention was moved to August 17th to give the planners more time to monitor what happens with Coronavirus. The first stimulus payments started getting to taxpayers with direct deposit information on file with the IRS. The US stock market indices have recovered a bit of their losses, and there has been good news on the numbers front in the battle against COVID19. Through all of this, the prediction markets have basically signaled that this information was already priced into most forecasts - barely budging at all. Trump maintains a 5 point edge on PredictIt, Betfair gives him a 54.6% chance of winning, and PredictWise has Trump holding steady at 54%.
Of note is that none of these figures registered even a small blip upon two prominent Biden endorsements, those of Sanders himself and former President Barack Obama. Also notable is that Trump's chances of re-election have barely budged despite a bounce in his approval numbers. All of this suggests that forecasters are still starved for data to make a meaningful prediction, and despite the busy appearance of the last two weeks, most of it was fully anticipated.
Trump Holds On To 54% Chance of Win
April 2, 2020
We're a solid two to three weeks into the Corona Virus shutdown and there has been some back-and-forth on a few of the prediction markets -- but not as much as you'd think. Donald Trump has maintained a 54% chance of re-election on Predictwise, a 49% chance on PredictIt, a 52% chance on BetFair, and HyperMind gives him 48%.
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