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2020 Presidential Election Forecast


TRUMP 0

BIDEN 0

CLOSE 538

It's still too early to post an entirely data-driven forecast for the 2020 election, as the polling is sparse and very high-level. The presumptive nominee for the Democrats is Joe Biden, with the summer's convention in Milwaukee hanging in limbo due to Coronavirus. Shown above is the 2016 Electoral Map with the seven closest states (those with less than 2.5% difference between Trump and Clinton) shown in gray and tallied as "close."

Civil Unrest Helps Biden
June 23, 2020
The protests, rioting, and looting of the last few weeks has been a boon for Joe Biden on most prediction and betting markets. Before the unrest, Trump held a roughly 8 point advantage over Biden. Biden now holds a massive 16 point lead over Trump, representing a nearly 25 point swing in the betting market averages. This data runs counter to what many conservative pundits have asserted, that Trump would be the beneficiary of the lawlessness and destruction.

There are, however, some silver linings for the GOP in the data. Most of the wagering on the election takes the form of overall-winner contracts. When you drill down into the state-by-state polling, Biden's lead in the polls narrows substantially -- and is weak in the places he needs it most. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania he holds a five point advantage, and in Michigan it's eight points. These leads are even smaller than the polling suggested for Hillary Clinton, and Trump upset for the win in all three states. The national election will probably hinge on those three states once again, assuming Trump can hold Florida and Ohio. Those wagering on overall-winner contracts may be underestimating Trumps position in the Electoral College.

Republicans also point to record-breaking gun sales figures coming out all across the country as proof that the "silent majority" is less than thrilled about the ongoing unrest that has now left over twenty people dead and hundreds of businesses burned to the ground. Crime is also surging in major cities across America, with Chicago seeing one of its all-time worst weekends with over 100 people shot over the Father's Day weekend. Historically, these indicators point to strength in turnout for the GOP, but the election is still a long way off. Four and a half months is an eternity in an election cycle, just look how far the pendulum swung in one.


Prediction Markets Defy Polls
May 11, 2020
Polling data is still thin, but there have been three recently-conducted polls for a general election faceoff between Biden and Trump. Monmouth, The Economist, and CNBC all have published results as recently as May 6th -- and all three have Biden showing a lead over Trump. As of May 11th, prediction markets Betfair, PredictIt and PredictWise remain unbudging with Trump showing a lead over Biden. This is the first unmistakable disconnect of the season between polling and prediction markets.


This disconnect seems to hold even if you zoom out and look at a wider sample than just these three polls and three prediction markets. As of May 11, 2020, the Real Clear Politics national average of polls shows Biden with a +4.4 spread, while their Betting Odds average shows Trump with an 8.1 point lead for Trump. Even this early in the season, one has to wonder why there is a healthy 12 point gap between what the polls are saying and how people are actually betting with real money. Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com site is not currently showing a spread on their main politics page, opting instead to run Trump's Presidential approval number, currently 44%. We already know that metric has marginal utility, as Barack Obama's approval percentage in May of 2012 hovered around 47%, and he ended up sailing to an easy victory that November.

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