Shown below is the final forecast for the Electoral Map in the 2016 Presidential election between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton. This forecast was frozen at noon the day before the election.
TRUMP 0 |
CLINTON 0 |
TOSSUP 538✓ |
With these state-by-state probabilities, Clinton wins 80.5% of the time. |
State | RCP average | Actual | Error/Bias |
---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin | Clinton +6.5 | Trump +0.8 | Clinton +7.3 |
Missouri | Trump +11.0 | Trump +19.1 | Clinton +7.1 |
Iowa | Trump +3.0 | Trump +9.5 | Clinton +6.5 |
Ohio | Trump +3.5 | Trump +8.0 | Clinton +4.5 |
Michigan | Clinton +3.4 | Trump +0.2 | Clinton +3.6 |
Pennsylvania | Clinton +1.9 | Trump +1.1 | Clinton +3.0 |
North Carolina | Trump +1.0 | Trump +3.7 | Clinton +2.7 |
Florida | Trump +0.2 | Trump +1.1 | Clinton +0.9 |
Georgia | Trump +4.8 | Trump +5.2 | Clinton +0.4 |
New Hampshire | Clinton +0.6 | Clinton +0.3 | Clinton +0.3 |
Arizona | Trump +4.0 | Trump +3.5 | Trump +0.5 |
Virginia | Clinton +5.0 | Clinton +5.5 | Trump +0.5 |
Colorado | Clinton +2.9 | Clinton +4.9 | Trump +2.0 |
Nevada | Trump +0.8 | Clinton +2.4 | Trump +3.2 |
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