The Magnitude of McCain's Recent Bounce
John McCain's recent bounce in the polls has also shown up in contract prices on the Intrade prediction market. The contract price for a McCain victory is now higher than its average price since May in all but ten states and the District of Columbia. The chart below shows the difference in the current price and the running average since May.
The bad news for Barack Obama is not only the magnitude of some of the price changes, but where they have occurred. Key battleground states like Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina saw some of the biggest upswings in price.
* denotes state whose average predicted an Obama victory but the current price has it going for McCain. (A blue to red shift)