Shown immediately below is the electoral map showing the results of the 2008 presidential election in which Brack Obama defeated John McCain. Below that is the Electoral Map from the Intrade prediction market as of 12:01 AM election day.

Nebraska will be splitting its electoral votes, for the first time in state history.  Four votes will be given to John McCain and one to Barack Obama.

2008 Electoral Map (predicted) 6/27

  Democrat: 306 [-11]
Republican: 216
 Dead Heat:  16 [+11]
     Total: 538 (270 to win)

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6-27-08

Notes

The only contract price to see a significant change this week was Missouri, sliding out of Obama's column and back into no man's land.  Otherwise, traders let Obama hold on to the slight leads he picked up in Virginia and New Hampshire.

The vote totals shown above represent a "winner take all" scenario based on the candidates winning the states in which they have contracts trading above 55.  An expected value approach, where each state's electoral vote is multiplied by the candidates probability of winning yields this:

Dem  = 304
Rep  = 234

 

Contract prices per party, 2008 Presidential Election

If the state-by-state elections were truly independent events, the Intrade probabilities would translate to an overall 16% chance of McCain winning the election.  This is in disagreement with a separate bet you can make at Intrade, shown here.