Shown immediately below is the electoral map showing the results of the 2008 presidential election in which Brack Obama defeated John McCain. Below that is the Electoral Map from the Intrade prediction market as of 12:01 AM election day.

Nebraska will be splitting its electoral votes, for the first time in state history.  Four votes will be given to John McCain and one to Barack Obama.



Below: Intrade Prediction Market Map
(use red arrows to see earlier predictions) 2008 Electoral Map (predicted) 11.4.08


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11.4.08                               animated map

About the results

Intrade had the electoral vote count virtually dead on.  Traders gave Obama a razor thin lead in Missouri, but it was truly a coin toss.  The only state that was objectively wrong was Indiana.  Indiana has not gone for the Democrats in decades, and the polls indicated that it would go for McCain as well.  Both of those states being worth 11 electoral votes means that Intrade ended up with the totals being correct - ignoring the one vote tweak in Nebraska.

Provided here is a brief analysis of Intrade's performance during this election season.

How did the pollsters do? See the pollster Report Card


Data Source
The data for the prediction maps come from the Intrade prediction market where there were real-money contracts for each individual state based on how it would award its 2008 electoral votes.  Traders who predicted the outcome correctly were rewarded with the money of those who did not.  For more information visit Intrade.com