The electoral map below is a forecast for the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election in which the presumptive nominees are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. The electoral college value for each state is shown, and the states are shaded according to the probability of a win.
Democrat: 264 [-29]
Republican: 227
Dead Heat: 47 [+29]
Total: 538 (270 to win)
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8.23.08 animated map
Data Source
The data for this map come from the Intrade prediction market where
there are real-money contracts for each individual state
based on how it will award its 2008 electoral votes. Traders who
predict the outcome correctly are rewarded with the money of those who
don't. For more information visit
Intrade.com. This map is updated
at least once per week.
Changes This Week
The Democrat contract fell in price in Colorado and Ohio
pushing 29 electoral votes into the neutral column. This is the
first time that ElectoralMap.net has shown totals for both
candidates below the 270 required to win.
scenario based on the candidates winning the states in which they have contracts trading above 55. An expected value approach, where each state's electoral vote is multiplied by the candidates probability of winning yields this:
Dem =
287
Rep = 251
If the state-by-state elections were truly independent events, the Intrade probabilities would translate to an overall 29% chance of John McCain winning the election.
A separate bet you can make at Intrade, shown here, currently has McCain's overall chances closer to 40%.