Governor's forecast posted
The Senate map was updated today with the latest polling data, and I've added a map for this year's gubernatorial races. The current polling suggests a strong year for the Democrats, with flips in New Mexico, Illinois, Michigan, and Maine. In Alaska, the Repblicans will likely wrest control from liberal Independent Bill Walker.
In the 2014 season, the polls were heavily skewed in the Democrats' favor resulting in a forecast of a one seat pickup for the Dems -- when in reality the Republicans picked up two Governorships. It's difficult to say if that skew will reappear this year, as the parties in power have traded places. Usually the party out of power has a stronger showing, which was the case in 2014.
Sep 12, 2018
First forecast of the season posted
The first Senate map is up, and it's rather....boring. The aggregation right now shows a seat gain in Nevada for the Democrats, and one in North Dakota for the Republicans, with four seats sitting at a coin-toss. This is pretty reflective of the most likely outcome in the Senate this year, which is a net change in power too small to flip the chamber. This season I've chosen roughly ten polls to aggregate, with a net bias (in my subjective judgement) in favor of the Democrats. This doesn't reflect my own personal bias, but rather the fact that I believe it will be a high turnout year for an energized base that absolutely despises President Trump.
You can use the radio buttons above the map to give tossup races to either party. In the 2014 mid-term races, the Tossups go the the Republicans scenario turned out to be a dead-on accurate forecast of what actually happened on election day. There are two ways to attempt to translate that fact to this year's race: One, the parties in/out of power are reversed - so maybe this year the Dems will claim the tossups. Two, the polls being used are very similar, so perhaps the tossups should go to the GOP because of the inherent bias towards the Dems. You decide!
Check back for updates, as I will likely be adding some data about house and governor races.