ElectoralMap.net - analyzing the 2014 midterm elections.

ElectoralMap.net is now using HTML5. It appears as though you are using a browser, such as older version of IE, which can't render the latest graphics technologies for the web. You need to obtain a modern browser to use this Electoral Map application.

A compliant browser can be downloaded from any of the following sites:
Firefox
Opera
Chrome



If Orman wins in Kansas

The race in Kansas, currently a Republican held seat, is between a Republican and an independent. The independent, Greg Orman, would most likely caucus with the Democrats, even if he could be the 51st Republican seat. But if the Republicans can get to 52 seats without him, he may join the Republicans. You can move this slider to change Orman's behavior. Read more


Configure individual state probabilities

Alabama
XXX
Alaska
XXX
Arkansas
XXX
Colorado
XXX
Delaware
XXX
Georgia
XXX
Hawaii (SE)
XXX
Idaho
XXX
Illinois
XXX
Iowa
XXX
Kansas
XXX
Kentucky
XXX
Louisiana
XXX
Maine
XXX
Massachusetts
XXX
Michigan
XXX
Minnesota
XXX
Mississippi
XXX
Montana
XXX
Nebraska
XXX
New Hampshire
XXX
New Jersey
XXX
New Mexico
XXX
North Carolina
XXX
Oklahoma
XXX
Oklahoma (SE)
XXX
Oregon
XXX
Rhode Island
XXX
South Carolina
XXX
South Carolina (SE)
XXX
South Dakota
XXX
Tennessee
XXX
Texas
XXX
Virginia
XXX
West Virginia
XXX
Wyoming
XXX

Share your custom probabilities:

You can share this URL with your friends, or post it to forums. It will set the probabilities for each state to your own custom values. Click the URL text box to select the text, then right click and go to "copy" or use CTRL+C to copy the URL to your clipboard. In some browsers (Chrome/Firefox) you can also right click on the actual image of the simulation and save it for use elsewhere.


Transform tightness (will erase your customization above)

This setting adjusts how polls are converted to probabilities for purposes of the simulation. Polls can show a "point lead" for a candidate, or analysts can simply report on a race using words like "safe" or "leaning." Move the slider to the right to make bigger leads and safer seats correspond to higher probabilities.


Number of elections to simulate

This setting determines how long the simulation will run. Simulating more elections causes the final values to converge to more precision. However, you'll find that this type of simulation starts to converge with a relatively small number of iterations.


Visual update rate

This setting changes how many simulated elections there are between visual updates of the chart. If you want the simulation to run slower, move the slider to the left. For a quicker run, move the slider to the right. Moving the slider right is handy if you are using a larger number of elections (the other slider above).