Sunday, December 7, 2014: Final Results

Mary Landrieu has lost the runoff election in Louisiana giving the Republicans their 9th seat pick-up in the U.S. Senate. Despite her last minute change of heart on the Keystone XL pipeline, she lost to challenger Bill Cassidy by over 14 points. The forecast was correct in all states except South Carolina, which was an additional gain for the Republicans. This means that the "tossups go Republican" scenario was dead on in every state.

Final forecast: Monday November 3, 2014

Show Me: - analyzing the 2014 midterm elections. is now using HTML5. It appears as though you are using a browser, such as older version of IE, which can't render the latest graphics technologies for the web. You need to obtain a modern browser to use this Electoral Map application.

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Overall probability of Republicans taking the Senate: 82%
According to the Monte Carlo simulation