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2010 House of Representatives
This chart depicts a prediction of the outcome of the 2010 US Congressional races based on betting data from Intrade.comEach bar represents an individual Intrade contract where wagers are placed on the likelihood that the Republican party will pick up that number of seats. *See note below.
Republican gain: 40 seats
Updated 7-27-2010
Contracts which are trading below the 50/50 mark are shaded a lighter red. Contracts above that mark are shaded dark red. This shading helps visualize the threshold between events that are not forecasted to happen and events that are. Historically the party in power loses seats during mid-term elections, and 2010 looks to be no exception. Intrade is in concurrence with major polls which forecast a Republican gain in seats, but with in a prediction market, traders aren't just answering a pollster's questions -- they are putting their money where their mouth is.
*Note: There is no market for a forecasted gain in seats for the Democratic party. There is, however, a contract for "no gain" in seats for the Republicans. That contract is trading near zero.