This chart depicts a prediction of the outcome of the 2010 US Congressional races based on betting data from Intrade.com
Tracking the market for nearly a year reveals a slow and steady increase in the anticipated number of Republican seats gained in the House.
Republican gain: 60 seats
Updated 11:59PM Nov 1, 2010
In late 2009 Intrade forecast a small GOP advance in the House of 25 seats. By the end of the election season Intrade had to add more contracts to the market to capture the possibility of 65, 70, and 75 seat gain. The 60 seat contract traded above 50/50 in the days before the election, which was the highest forecast gain for the season.
Key Senate Races for the GOP
The charts below show contract prices for the entire election season for
Senate seats that are in play. In each case the Democratic Party is incumbent,
and the person holding the seat is named unless they are retiring. The
data being graphed represents the probability that the Democrat party will hold on to
the seat. In other words, each of these seats represents a potential pickup for the Republicans.