2010 Senate Race Map
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| Updated 7-27-2010 |
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This map depicts a prediction of the outcome of the 2010 US Senate Races based on betting data from Intrade.com
States where there is no 2010 Senate race are colored gray. States where the Democrat is leading the Republican are colored blue, and red states indicate a Republican lead.
Net pickup: +6 (R)
If the senate race is a tossup, its color will appear white. The more intense the shade of red or blue, the higher probability of a win is being predicted. Intrade participants wager real money on the outcome of each state's senate race. Traders offer contracts for sale, and others bid on those contracts, creating what is known as a "prediction market." This type of forecasting can be even more reliable than polls. This page is updated daily.
Senate race forecast in table form
The table below has an entry for each state where there is a 2010 senate race. The incumbent's name and party are indicated, as well as the current probability that the incumbent party will retain that seat. If the incumbent senator's party is forecast to lose the pickup column will indicate which party is gaining a seat.
| State | Incumbent | Win Probability |
Pickup | |
| AL | (R) | Richard Shelby | 95.00 | -- |
| AK | (R) | Lisa Murkowski | 90.05 | -- |
| AZ | (R) | John McCain | 88.00 | -- |
| AR | (D) | Blanche Lincoln | 6.65 | +R |
| CA | (D) | Barbara Boxer | 60.45 | -- |
| CO | (D) | Michael Bennet | 43.15 | +R |
| CT | (D) | Chris Dodd(retiring) | 84.75 | -- |
| DE | (D) | Ted Kaufman(retiring) | 20.00 | +R |
| FL | (R) | George LeMieux(retiring) | 67.40 | -- |
| GA | (R) | Johnny Isakson | 90.05 | -- |
| HI | (D) | Daniel Inouye | 80.00 | -- |
| ID | (R) | Mike Crapo | 91.75 | -- |
| IL | (D) | Roland Burris(retiring) | 53.75 | -- |
| IN | (D) | Evan Bayh | 10.50 | +R |
| IA | (R) | Chuck Grassley | 87.50 | -- |
| KS | (R) | Sam Brownback | 91.70 | -- |
| KY | (R) | Jim Bunning(retiring) | 62.25 | -- |
| LA | (R) | David Vitter | 91.45 | -- |
| MD | (D) | Barbara Mikulski | 87.50 | -- |
| MO | (R) | Kit Bond(retiring) | 64.25 | -- |
| NV | (D) | Harry Reid | 58.00 | -- |
| NH | (R) | Judd Gregg(retiring) | 70.00 | -- |
| NY | (D) | Chuck Schumer | 88.55 | -- |
| NY | (D) | Kirsten Gillibrand | 85.50 | -- |
| NC | (R) | Richard Burr | 80.50 | -- |
| ND | (D) | Byron Dorgan(retiring) | 8.00 | +R |
| OH | (R) | George Voinovich(retiring) | 52.60 | -- |
| OK | (R) | Tom Coburn | 87.50 | -- |
| OR | (D) | Ron Wyden | 86.50 | -- |
| PA | (D) | Arlen Specter | 43.65 | +R |
| SC | (R) | Jim DeMint | 94.95 | -- |
| SD | (R) | John Thune | 87.50 | -- |
| UT | (R) | Bob Bennett | 92.45 | -- |
| VT | (D) | Patrick Leahy | 90.50 | -- |
| WA | (D) | Patty Murray | 62.50 | -- |
| WI | (D) | Russ Feingold | 59.75 | -- |