2010 Senate Races

Election Results

It appears that Intrade was wrong only in Nevada and Colorado. Before the election contracts in CO and NV were trading in the 20s, representing the greatest profit potential for traders bucking the trend.

Senate change: +6 seats (GOP)

House change: +63 seats (GOP)

The Intrade Forecast

As of 11:59 PM Nov 1, 2010

Shown here is the predicted result of the 2010 Senate Races as forecast by the Intrade prediciton market. The forecast was for a GOP pickup of 8 seats in the following states: AR, CO, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA, WI. Scroll down to see the data in tabular format.

For information on Intrade's House race forecast click here.

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Senate race forecast in table form

The table below has an entry for each state where there is a 2010 senate race. The incumbent's name and party are indicated, as well as the current probability that the incumbent party will retain that seat. If the incumbent senator's party is forecast to lose the pickup column will indicate which party is gaining a seat.

State Incumbent Win Probability Pickup AL (R) Richard Shelby 70.05 -- AK (R) Not Determined 78.70 -- AZ (R) John McCain 93.80 -- AR (D) Blanche Lincoln 0.80 +R CA (D) Barbara Boxer 89.85 -- CO (D) Michael Bennet 28.30 +R CT (D) Chris Dodd(retiring) 92.00 -- DE (D) Ted Kaufman(retiring) 92.05 -- FL (R) George LeMieux(retiring) 96.10 -- GA (R) Johnny Isakson 90.05 -- HI (D) Daniel Inouye 80.00 -- ID (R) Mike Crapo 94.23 -- IL (D) Roland Burris(retiring) 30.15 +R IN (D) Evan Bayh 3.00 +R IA (R) Chuck Grassley 87.50 -- KS (R) Sam Brownback 84.95 -- KY (R) Jim Bunning(retiring) 93.75 -- LA (R) David Vitter 98.95 -- MD (D) Barbara Mikulski 87.50 -- MO (R) Kit Bond(retiring) 94.50 -- NV (D) Harry Reid 27.25 +R NH (R) Judd Gregg(retiring) 96.75 -- NY (D) Chuck Schumer 92.50 -- NY (D) Kirsten Gillibrand 95.05 -- NC (R) Richard Burr 89.45 -- ND (D) Byron Dorgan(retiring) 2.00 +R OH (R) George Voinovich(retiring) 98.50 -- OK (R) Tom Coburn 87.50 -- OR (D) Ron Wyden 97.50 -- PA (D) Arlen Specter 12.05 +R SC (R) Jim DeMint 93.25 -- SD (R) John Thune 89.95 -- UT (R) Not Determined 92.45 -- VT (D) Patrick Leahy 94.50 -- WA (D) Patty Murray 65.00 -- WI (D) Russ Feingold 7.00 +R WV (D) Robert Byrd(died) 78.00 --

NEW CHARTS Check out the new charts for the entire election season. Contract prices for key senate seats are graphed with a full year's worth of data from Intrade. Click here.